The domestic equity markets are expected to extend gains following the strong showing of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state elections - a crucial precursor to the general elections in May. The BJP decisively secured victories in three of the four key states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. While the battles in these three states were closely contested, the scale of the BJP's triumph has surprised many, heightening expectations for regime continuity in 2024 - a positive catalyst for the markets.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Steel declined 3.45 per cent, followed by Tata Motors which fell by 3.19 per cent. Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, JSW Steel, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro and Bharti Airtel were among the other major laggards. Nestle, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever and Tech Mahindra were the gainers.
Zomato emerged as the biggest gainer, followed by Reliance, Nestle, Asian Paints and Power Grid.
ONGC was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 5 per cent, followed by SBI, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto and Maruti. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, HUL, Dr Reddy's, NTPC and Reliance Industries were among the gainers.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
From the Sensex basket, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HCL Technologies, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, Nestle, Tata Motors and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
Crude oil prices have more than doubled, pushing up India's import bill and raising fears of a higher current account and fiscal deficit. This will impact corporate earnings.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, NTPC, Power Grid, Titan, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries and UltraTech Cement were the biggest gainers. In contrast, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Titan, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Maruti, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies soared to an all-time high of Rs 406.52 lakh crore on Monday thanks to a rally in equities where the BSE Sensex climbed over 1 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 941.12 points or 1.28 per cent to finish at 74,671.28. During the day, it zoomed 990.99 points or 1.34 per cent to 74,721.15.
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
Centre took Rs 1,002 bn from here in 2017-18, sharply up from Rs 904 bn a year before and Rs 123.6 bn in FY14
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide the movement in the equity market this week, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee will also influence trading in the markets. "All eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. TCS is slated to unveil its Q2 results on October 11, with HCL Technologies and Infosys following suit on October 12.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded from early lows to settle higher on Wednesday following buying in Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and ITC and positive trends in Asian and European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 173.22 points or 0.26 per cent to settle at 66,118.69. The index opened lower and fell further to a low of 65,549.96 in morning trade.
The NSE Nifty settled at 10,234.65, down 225.45 points, or 2.16 per cent.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Tata Steel, Zomato, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank and NTPC were the major laggards. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
Unless something changes, Mr Trump is a huge threat right now, which is perhaps not being recognised fully, cautions Debashis Basu.
Gold prices are struggling and are down 18 per cent from their March highs. But stock prices have fallen even more. As a result, the precious metal has begun to outperform equities - both in the domestic market and international markets. Gold prices are up 2.6 per cent in the domestic market in the current calendar year (CY22) so far, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), compared to a 1.7 per cent decline in the Sensex year-to-date (YTD).
The sudden movement of the rupee - post the monetary policy - is not a reason to panic, said currency dealers. According to them, a correction was overdue for the rupee that remained the best performing currency in the region for well over a month. The rupee closed at 74.72 a dollar on Friday from its previous close of 74.60. It had dropped 1.52 per cent against the dollar on April 7 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its monetary policy, committing to buy Rs 1 trillion of bonds in the June quarter. A weak rupee goes well with the export narrative of the government, and is consistent with the RBI's intervention strategy that prevented an appreciation.
Investors' desire for companies to prioritise returning cash to shareholders through share buybacks, dividends or mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is at the highest level since July 2015, said a survey by BofA Securities (BofA). Nearly 30 per cent of respondents wanted companies to do so. As many as 226 respondents with $572 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) participated in the March fund manager survey (FMS), said BofA.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Mutual funds (MFs) have stepped up equity purchases after staying on the fence for over two months. Their net equity investments reached a four-month high of Rs 7,700 crore in July, rising for the fourth consecutive month after withdrawing a net of Rs 5,100 crore in April 2023. This trend continued in August, with net investments of Rs 3,400 crore in the first three trading sessions, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
But this might not be the best time to enter these, as probability of further reductions in near future is low
'Our discussions with investors and the market's multiples suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning 2019 is being priced in,' says a UBS report.
As we say shalom to 2016, the key drivers for the markets in the year ahead have become more obvious, says Neeraj Gambhir, managing director and head of fixed income, India, Nomura. First, there is a surging dollar. Second, rising commodity prices. Then, we have the effects of demonetisation.
Among major Sensex movers, ITC rose the most by 1.70 per cent, Wipro by 1.43 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.36 per cent and Nestle India by 1.27 per cent. Other gainers included HCL Tech, Asian Paints and Reliance. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel traded with a loss of up to 0.82 per cent.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
The rupee depreciated by 17 paise to end at nearly one-month low of 61.72 against the greenback on Friday on sustained dollar demand even as domestic equities surged to new highs.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
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Else, more capital outflow and pressure on rupee likely.
Green bonds refer to bonds issued mainly by power companies to finance energy efficient projects
